by Jeniffer Solis, Nevada Current
After wildfires in Nevada burned just 1,305 acres last year — the lowest in the state’s recorded history — forecasters fear dry conditions in the next couple months will make this year a much different story.
With less precipitation than normal across much of the Great Basin in June, a prolonged heat wave, and fields of flammable grasses helped along by a wet spring, most of northern and western Nevada and portions of southern Nevada are at greater risk of widespread wildfires from July through August.
“Washoe all the way up to Elko through Humboldt is at elevated risk for extreme wildfire behavior,” said Kacey KC, state forester and fire warden with the Nevada Division of Forestry.
That outlook is part of a 4-month forecast produced monthly by the National Interagency Fire Center, a collaboration between eight federal agencies to support and coordinate wildland fire resources across the country.
Forecasts using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center found that long-term precipitation, drought, and moisture conditions in Nevada this summer make the state ripe for an above-average risk of significant fires. National Interagency Fire Center map of the wildfire outlook for July 2024. (Courtesy of National Interagency Fire Center)
Over the last two years, Nevada’s wildfire season has been relatively inactive after consecutive hardy winter snowpacks and generous spring showers, but those conditions also allowed highly flammable invasive cheatgrass to multiply, KC said.
“Drought years typically are not our biggest fire years. Years like this, when we’re coming out of two big wet winters, those are usually our biggest fire years,” she said. “That’s directly correlated to grass growth.”
Annual grass like invasive cheatgrass do not survive all year long; instead they grow in huge volumes in the spring and die off in the summer, providing ample fuel for the West’s wildfire season. Cheatgrass also significantly lengthens the fire season by drying out earlier than native vegetation.
One positive is that healthy snowpacks in the Sierra Nevada, Mount Charleston, and around Lake Tahoe mean that forest growth in the state’s upper elevations is still packed with snow that can insulate woody fuels against wildfire for now.
“They have a snowpack that’s going to keep them safer until later into the season,” KC said.
Small wildfires fueled by grasses have already burned through hundreds of acres around the state. Last week, a wildfire north of Washoe County’s Spanish Springs started with a light brush fire that rapidly grew to about 172 acres before being contained by the Truckee Meadows Fire & Rescue. The week prior, a wildfire fueled by grass 13 miles north of Fernley burned through 286 before the Bureau of Land Management contained it.
“I’ve made the drive to Elko at least five times in the last month and it’s all along the Sierra front. I’m looking out my window right now, you can see the cheatgrass all the way up. In some spots knee high,” KC said.
Tim Brown, director of the Western Regional Climate Center, said current weather patterns suggest there is little chance of significant precipitation in Nevada, which could reduce wildfire risk. However, forecasts by the National Interagency Fire Center note that there is still an increased risk of wildfires in Nevada caused by lightning and dry fuel from July to August.
“Sometimes there’s enough moisture to create rain, but the atmosphere is so dry that rain will actually evaporate before it reaches the ground. You’ll still get thunderstorms, but not enough rain to help prevent lightning from starting a fire, or put it out,” Brown said.
Atmospheric pressure in Nevada also creates prolonged windy conditions in the summer that can create fast-spreading fires, said Brown. Nevada is likely to see those windy conditions throughout July and August, according to the 4-month forecast produced monthly by the National Interagency Fire Center.
In June, the Bureau of Land Management and the Nevada Division of Forestry placed nearly all public land in northern and western Nevada under fire restrictions.
Wildfire season typically peaks in summer and fall in Nevada, but human-caused climate change is leading to longer and more intense wildfire seasons. In the Southwest, extreme wildfire season is projected to increase by more than 20 days per year, according to a recent study by the Desert Research Institute.
About 85% of wildfires in Nevada are caused by human activity, said Adam Mayberry, the communications manager for the Truckee Meadows Fire & Rescue. Dry vegetation can be ignited by everyday actions from target shooting, to welding, or even by starting a vehicle on a field of dry grass.
“We’ve had fires that started by people burning weeds on a hot, dry, windy day. Or doing construction work. They’re cutting bricks, for instance, and that triggers sparks and a few hours later, you have 200 acres burning,” Mayberry said.
“The risk is higher than it has been in the last couple of years, Mayberry continued. “So we want residents to be very cautious when they’re out in the wildland, do all they can to prevent and to not engage in activities that spark fires.”
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