The University of Nevada Men’s basketball team heads to Las Vegas this week to compete in the Mountain West conference tournament. All games will be played at the Thomas and Mack Center.
The Pack’s second-place league finish secured them the #2 seed in the tournament, winning a tiebreak with Boise State. Nevada will face the winner of Wednesday’s #7 Colorado State vs #10 San Jose State tilt on Thursday at 6 p.m.
Nevada split their home and away games with the Rams in conference play and swept the Spartans in their two meetings.
The Wolf Pack heads to the tournament playing arguably their best basketball of the season. Following their victory last Saturday against UNLV, head coach Steve Alford and the seniors who joined him for the post-game presser made no bones about the fact that they have much bigger goals ahead.
Let’s take a look at the matchups and break down how I think the tournament will shake out.
Wednesday First Round
#8 Wyoming vs #9 Fresno State (11 a.m., MW Network)
Wyoming has the edge here given their three-point shooting and better defense. Fresno State had high hopes for this season but injuries simply decimated them before they ever got out of the gate.
PICK: Wyoming
#7 Colorado State vs #10 San Jose State (1:30 p.m., MW Network)
The Spartans took a step backward this season without last year’s MW Player of The Year Omari Moore. The Rams were ranked as high as #16 in the country in January but have barely been a .500 team since. But the Spartans simply don’t have enough to fend off the likes of the MW’s best point man in Isaiah Stevens.
PICK: Colorado State
#6 New Mexico vs #11 Air Force (4 p.m., MW Network)
This is when the tournament could get interesting. On paper, Air Force has no business upsetting a Lobo team that simply must win this game to cling to any hope of an at-large bid into the big dance. But it’s hard to win a game at The Pit and it doesn’t happen by accident, and the Falcons pulled that off, leading most of the way just a month ago in Albuquerque.
New Mexico had a chance to bolster their resume in the season finale last Saturday to spoil a league championship celebration for Utah State while on the road in Logan, Utah, but Jamal Mashburn Jr. was a late scratch with an illness and they came up a late three-point bomb from Darius Brown II short. On paper, this one is a layup, but…
PICK: New Mexico
Thursday Quarterfinals
#1 Utah State vs #8 Wyoming / #9 Fresno State winner (12 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Despite its first outright MW league championship and top seed in the MW tournament, the Aggies are tracking more on form to Colorado State than to Nevada or Boise State. The MW champs have won five straight after getting pummeled by the Rams on the road, but needed late Darius Brown II three-pointers to beat Fresno State in overtime and to overcome the under-manned Lobos at home in the season finale. A win is a win and USU has been outstanding in close games, but rolling they’re not.
PICK: Utah State
#4 UNLV vs #5 SDSU (2:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Take away the two contests they lost to Nevada, and the Rebels haven’t seen an “L” since January, winning 10 of 12. The defense, which was awful in the run-up to conference play has turned around and freshman sensation and MW Co-Freshman Player of the Year Dedan Thomas Jr.—who should have been playing as a high school senior this year but graduated early—is the real deal. UNLV also handed the Aztecs, who still had a shot at the league title, a loss at Thomas and Mack just a week ago.
The issue for the Rebels is their offense is somewhat limited. Thomas and Keylan Boone accounted for 47 of UNLV’s 65 points Saturday in Reno and the Aztecs, despite being the worst three-point shooting team in the conference, can play defense.
Other than Jaedon LeDee and his teammates feeling slighted by him not winning the MW Player of the Year award and a spoonful of revenge by knocking UNLV out of any bid-stealing opportunity, I’m having trouble finding a lot of motivation.
The Aztecs will likely be a 5-6 seed in the NCAA tournament regardless of their performance. After missing out on a league title they may be looking ahead to the big dance and validating their run to last year’s championship game. I’m counting on pride being enough.
PICK: SDSU
#2 Nevada vs #10 Colorado State / #7 SJSU (6 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
No team enters the tournament playing better team basketball than Nevada, though Boise State is on par. The difference is that the Wolf Pack should have the biggest chip on their shoulder for a number of reasons.
Nevada guard Jarod Lucas pointed out after the UNLV game that after an unexpected run last season, they finished the season losing four straight and didn’t win a game in March. The truth is they simply ran out of gas, essentially playing a six-and-a-half man rotation where the entire offense most nights was he and Kenan Blackshear. The team was absolutely gassed. Hard to fault the finish, honestly.
But Lucas didn’t make those excuses and made it clear they want this year to be different, and they tip Thursday almost a polar opposite team to a year ago.
While Lucas led the Pack in scoring, he was hardly their only weapon. The emergence of Nick Davidson, who’s had a monster second half of the season on both ends of the floor has taken some pressure off of Lucas and number-two scorer and point guard Kenan Blackshear.
Freshman Tyler Rolison’s defense has improved as the season has progressed and he’s given Alford quality minutes off the bench running the offense in relief of Blackshear. While the sheer numbers aren’t eye-popping, he’s an efficient 8-for-13 from the floor and 6-of-6 from the free throw line in the last six games. He also tends to get the ball up the floor faster than Blackshear, and the extra pace can lead to easy baskets if they can catch a defense off guard.
The Pack also has two of the best defenders in the MW in Tre’ Coleman and Daniel Foster. Coleman has added a timely scoring touch this season when the rest of the offense seems to sputter. Foster’s contributions don’t show up on the score sheet, but night in and night out he takes on the toughest matchups defensively and wins more often than he loses.
Nevada unfortunately will be without the services of Hunter McIntosh, who will remain in Reno to rehab a sore knee, the same one that was surgically repaired before last season. It’s a blow to be sure as McIntosh has played the best basketball of his career in the closing month of the season. McIntosh was almost single-handedly responsible for Nevada’s big upset win at Boise State when he dropped a career-high 26 points on the Broncos.
But it’s the defense and depth of this Nevada team that is their strength, and it helps them compete in most any style of game. McIntosh didn’t even attempt a shot during the 10-point victory over UNLV on Saturday.
The Rams are the odds-on favorite to be their opponent come Thursday, and any team with All-MW First-Team point guard Isaiah Stevens will always be a tough out. But Colorado State played their best basketball in 2023 and is a 10-8 basketball team in 2024.
PICK: Nevada
#3 Boise State vs #6 New Mexico / #11 Air Force winner (8:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Despite a home loss to the Pack late in the season, the Broncos come in with similar momentum to Nevada, winning six of their last seven including an overtime victory at San Diego State. Had Utah State not prevailed on the final Saturday, both BSU and Nevada would have shared the MW title with USU.
If New Mexico gets into the quarters, their speed and athleticism can cause problems for every team in the tournament. They have some size in the middle, the shooting of Mashburn, and the defense and playmaking from point guard Jaelen House. New Mexico will likely need a victory just to get into the play-in round of 68 in the NCAA tournament. (I personally don’t count that as having made it into the field, which I define as 64 teams. That goes for Nevada last year as well.)
This should be the best game of the quarterfinals and will probably come down to the last couple of possessions. The x-factor for the Lobos in this one is MW Co-Freshman Player of the Year J.T. Toppin, but I think the balance on both ends of the court around All-MW Tyson Degenhart sees the Broncos survive.
PICK: Boise State
Friday Semifinals
I’ll proceed with the rest of the games as if I’m Nostradamus and my picks have prevailed. YMMV (your mileage may vary).
#1 Utah State vs #6 San Diego State (6:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
This is the toughest one to figure for me because I’m unsure of the Aztecs’ motivation.
In SDSU’s February loss at Utah State (the Aztecs failed to win a road game against the top seven in the MW this season), MW newcomer and Player of the Year Great Osobor Jr. outplayed Jaedon LeDee. On top of that, SDSU’s Lamont Butler, the MW Defensive Player of the Year, had a horrendous night guarding Darius Brown II with a -16.5 rating when he was on the floor.
Maybe the above and a semifinal tournament game against the MW league champion is enough to get them committed. If it is, and they can manage to shoot the three-pointer at 33% or better, I believe they prevail.
PICK: SDSU
#2 Nevada vs #3 Boise State (9 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
The Wolf Pack and Broncos draw a ridiculous tip-time of 9 p.m., but it should be worth it to make some coffee and watch this one.
The Broncos already know that the injured Hunter McIntosh can’t can all six triples he tosses up again and register a ridiculous +43 when he’s on the floor.
While Jarod Lucas had 19 points in that win, nine of them came from the free throw line. He’ll need a better performance this time around, as will Nick Davidson who had the worst defensive rating of anyone on the floor with a -11.6 plus/minus.
The Wolf Pack has the size to deal with Boise State’s Agbo and Stanley inside with Davidson and K.J. Hymes but it will need Coleman and Foster to look after Degenhart, who has simply lit it up at the hoop in conference play, converting 61% of his two-point attempts and 36% from deep.
Tyler Rolison is going to have to deal with pesky Max Rice for at least 12-15 minutes on both ends of the floor with McIntosh absent. If Nevada can play the Broncos even those minutes may be the difference.
PICK: Nevada
Saturday Championship
#2 Nevada vs #6 San Diego State (3 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Nevada’s seed ceiling for the NCAA tournament is as a #4 seed and getting there would seem a stretch. A five or six is well within reach, and at worst if they lose in the quarters is a nine seed. I think the only way to get to #4 is to beat the team with the best non-conference resume in the MW.
The Wolf Pack got smoked at Viejas Arena in January right after losing to Boise State at home. They followed up the Aztec loss with their worst defensive effort of the year, allowing Wyoming to hang 98 on them and absorb their only quad III loss of the season.
Things looked a little bleak at that point with a 3-4 MW record, a bad loss, and a ranked Colorado State team headed to Lawlor.
But Alford and the coaching staff found a way to get the focus back on defense and defending out to the three-point arc and beyond. Aside from the two New Mexico losses in which the Lobos just did what they do, Nevada held opponents to just 67-of-219 from deep in the other 11 games, a clip of 30%, and they won all of them.
Nevada has been the best three-point shooting team in MW play this season, while SDSU is the worst. Losing McIntosh hurts that number, but if the above holds true, the Wolf Pack finally gets to do what Jarod Lucas and his fellow seniors set as a goal and cut down some nets on Saturday afternoon.
PICK: Nevada
Next up: Nevada will play in the NCAA tournament on either Thursday, March 21, or Friday March 22. Time and opponent will be announced on Sunday, March 17 during the NCAA Tournament selection show from 3-4 p.m. on CBS.
